Tuesday, June 27, 2006

The US Housing Market is in the 'Pause' Mode

Have you ever seen a baby bang himself on something? Often, there is a big pause and then - WAMMO! The crying starts at full volume.

Right now, I think the US housing market is in the 'pause' segment. We all can see what is happening, but the pain hasn't really been felt yet.

When the crying starts at full volume, these things will be happening:
Housing starts go way down - construction jobs lost and lumber industry gets hurt.
Banks get hurt; pull back on credit. Mortgage industry massive disruption.
Housing-equity funded consumption drops, leading to associated production/job loss.

To extend the analogy to Ottawa, we haven't even stubbed our toe yet - we're the toddler running around the room bouncing off furniture at full blast thinking like nothing could ever hurt us.


Post a Comment

<< Home